|
April 20, 2004
Census Bureau Projects Surge in
Hispanic & Asian Populations
Demographic trends will also alter face of faith
AMP Report
A recent U.S. Census Bureau projection shows that the nation's Hispanic and Asian populations will triple in size over the next half century, while the population of white Americans will decrease by 19 percent.
The estimates, which are projected through 2050, show that as early as 2010 the minority population will have grown to 110 million out of a total 309 million. The projection shows the white and minority population eventually balancing out to an almost 50/50 status.
The Census Bureau projects that the Latino population will grow to 103 million by 2050, a threefold increase from the 2000 figure of 36 million. According to the Census Bureau, the terms "Hispanic" and "Latino" are only in reference to ethnicity, but not race. Because of this, Hispanics have identified their race as being white in previous census data. Researchers see this as a problem down the line, where it could skew data and not promote "clear" projections.
By 2050 "minority" groups will comprise 49.9 percent of the U.S. population of more than 420 million people. Today whites are 69 percent of today's population, but in 45 years that percentage will shrink to just over 50 percent. White birth rates and immigration numbers continue to drop while the Hispanic population in the United States will explode by 188 percent by mid-century to about 103 million people -- nearly a quarter of the nation.
During the same period, the Asian population in America will triple to 33 million -- 8 percent of the national total -- and the black percentage will climb to about 61 million, or 15 percent. Blacks will remain the country's second largest minority behind Hispanics, a distinct ethnic group who can be of any race.
One other demographic trend now emerging in American life will loom even larger: 20 percent of all Americans in 2050 will be 65 or older, and in the same year a full 5 percent of the population will be 85 or older. That advanced age group is only 1.5 percent of today's population.
The implications are undeniable and irreversible. An early John F. Kennedy book described America as a "nation of immigrants," most of whom came from Europe. But only 45 years from now about half of all Americans will trace their family roots to Central and South America, the Caribbean, Asia and Africa.
These startling statistics will change religious life in the United States. While many Hispanics in the United States have deserted their ancestral Catholic faith for Pentecostal, charismatic and evangelical Protestant churches, tens of millions of Latinos will still remain Roman Catholic. However, the longtime Irish, Italian and Polish leadership of America's largest faith community will inevitably yield to the sheer weight of Hispanics who will be the majority Catholic population group in 2050.
Similarly, the Hispanic influence will be felt within the Protestant community. This impact will be much more than a token Spanish language service on Sundays or the limited use of Hispanic liturgical music at a Protestant church in place of J.S. Bach or Charles Wesley.
Christian theology taught in seminaries and preached in congregations will be less European-centered and more focused on South American liberation theology, outdoor religious liturgies, and a social action agenda heavy on immigration reform, including amnesty for illegal workers, improved public education, increased job training, tougher anti-discrimination legislation and affordable housing.
The Asian population, much like the Latino population, looks to grow to 33 million out of the total population – three times its population of 11 million in 2000, according to the projections. While many Asian-Americans are Christians; Buddhism, Hinduism, Confucianism, Shintoism and other Asian religions will become more publicly visible in the United States.
Following the examples of Jews and Muslims, followers of Asian religions will demand their rightful place at America's inter-religious table, and the concept of religious pluralism, which frightens many Christians today, will, by 2050, be no longer a theoretical idea but the spiritual reality of our nation, according to some analysts.
Projections also show that by 2050 the number of baby boomers retiring will increase from 35 million to 87 million, which experts say have implications for the rising minority populations. The large number of Americans vying for Social Security will have an increased reliance on the growing Latino and Asian communities.
"Financing the old age of the baby boomers would be more difficult without a growing Hispanic population," said Roberto Suro of the Pew Hispanic Center.
Echoing Suro's remarks are those of Edward Telles, a UCLA sociologist. "It's going to be immigrant labor supporting the aging white populations," Telles said.
"These kind of data pushes us to think about the country in different ways, and how we define America," said Sonia Perez, vice president of research for the National Council of La Raza, a Hispanic advocacy group.
Some experts, though excited about these findings, have concerns about the accuracy of the projections.
Source: Media reports
|
